The Pharmaceutical Company Outlook to 2012: Strategic Analysis of Sales Outlook for Big Pharma

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Publication Date: 2007-12-25

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Based on an analysis of 43 companies and 1,200+ products, Datamonitor forecasts that pharmaceutical industry ethical sales will increase at a modest 3.2% CAGR 2006 to 2012. However, behind this industry average figure there are strategic segments of the market that offer double-digit growth rates through barriers against generic competition and the opportunity for aggressive indication broadening.

Scope

Strategic Analysis of the Sales Outlook to 2012 for Big Pharma, Mid Pharma, Japan Pharma and Biotech

Quantitative analysis of the revenue balance of launches and expiries for each peer set member to 2012

Assessment of current and forecast 2012 therapy area sales and molecule type focus for each peer set member

Report Highlights
Faced with failing growth, Big Pharma is expected to pursue strategic options including operational cost efficiencies, M&A with other Big Pharma companies, biotech, Mid Pharma CNS players and/or generics manufacturers and acquisitional moves outside of \'pharma space\' to increase presence in medical devices, diagnostics and consumer healthcare.

Reasons to Purchase

Understand the strategic motives behind the recent wave of Big Pharma acquisitions of monoclonal antibody companies

Identify the rare examples of promising high growth CNS products located in the Mid Pharma peer set

Learn how biotech faces slowing growth momentum due to commercial pressures on therapeutic proteins

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - page 3
- Key findings - page 3
- Introduction to the PharmaVitae Universe - page 5
- Summary of analysis - page 9
- PharmaVitae Universe and Peer Set overviews - page 11
  - PharmaVitae Universe overview - page 11
  - Big Pharma overview - page 13
  - Mid Pharma overview - page 15
  - Biotech overview - page 17
  - Japan Pharma overview - page 19
- Peer Set analysis - page 21
  - The PharmaVitae universe will grow at a very modest 2006-12 CAGR of 3.2% - page 21
  - Peer sets will exhibit significantly different growth rates over 2006-12 - page 23
- Company analysis - page 24
  - PharmaVitae Universe sales forecast by company, 2006-12 - page 24
  - Company 2006 sales x compound annual growth rates, 2006-12 matrix - page 26
  - Peer sets occupy discrete regions of the 2006 sales x 2006-12 CAGR matrix - page 28
  - Scale limit of the 2006 sales x 2006-12 CAGR matrix - page 30
- Therapy area analysis - page 32
  - PharmaVitae Universe sales forecast by therapy area, 2006-12 - page 32
  - Therapy area compound annual growth rates, 2006-12 - page 34
  - Peer Set therapy area focus, 2006 - page 36
  - Company compound annual growth rates, 2006-12, predicted on basis of therapy area focus - page 38
- Molecule type analysis - page 40
  - PharmaVitae Universe sales forecast by molecule type, 2006-12 - page 40
  - Molecule type compound annual growth rates, 2006-12 - page 42
  - Peer Set molecule type focus, 2006 - page 43
  - Company compound annual growth rates, 2006-12, predicted on the basis of molecule type - page 45
  - Degree of small molecule focus is a key determinant of generic risk - page 47
- Launches and expiries analysis - page 49
  - Launch / Core / Expiry (LCE) methodology - page 49
  - Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2006-12 - page 55
- The rest of this report - page 57
CHAPTER 2 BIG PHARMA - page 61
- Key findings - page 61
- Big Pharma introduction - page 63
  - Big Pharma members - page 63
  - Big Pharma overview - page 64
- Big Pharma sales outlook - page 65
  - Big Pharma sales forecasts, 2006-12 - page 65
  - Big Pharma peer set sales forecast, 2006-12 - page 69
  - Big Pharma sales compound annual growth rates, 2006-12 - page 70
  - Big Pharma change in annual sales, 2006-12 - page 71
- Big Pharma therapy area analysis - page 73
  - Big Pharma by therapy area sales, 2006 - page 73
  - Big Pharma by therapy area sales, 2012 - page 75
- Big Pharma molecule type analysis - page 77
  - Big Pharma by molecule type focus, 2006 - page 77
  - Big Pharma by molecule type focus, 2012 - page 79
- Big Pharma launches and expiries analysis - page 80
  - Big Pharma change in annual sales from launches and expiries, 2006-12 - page 80
  - Big Pharma sales growth rates from launches and expiries, 2006-12 - page 82
CHAPTER 3 MID PHARMA - page 86
- Key findings - page 86
- Mid Pharma introduction - page 88
  - Mid Pharma members - page 88
  - Mid Pharma overview - page 89
- Mid Pharma sales outlook - page 91
  - Mid Pharma sales forecasts, 2006-12 - page 91
  - Mid Pharma peer set sales forecast, 2006-12 - page 93
  - Mid Pharma sales compound annual growth rates, 2006-12 - page 94
  - Mid Pharma change in annual sales, 2006-12 - page 95
- Mid Pharma therapy area analysis - page 97
  - Mid Pharma by therapy area sales, 2006 - page 97
  - Mid Pharma by therapy area sales, 2012 - page 99
- Mid Pharma molecule type analysis - page 100
  - Mid Pharma by molecule type focus, 2006 - page 100
  - Mid Pharma by molecule type focus, 2012 - page 101
- Mid Pharma launches and expiries analysis - page 102
  - Mid Pharma change in annual sales from launches and expiries, 2006-12 - page 102
  - Mid Pharma sales growth rates from launches and expiries, 2006-12 - page 104
CHAPTER 4 BIOTECH - page 108
- Key findings - page 108
- Biotech introduction - page 110
  - Biotech members - page 110
  - Biotech overview - page 111
- Biotech sales outlook - page 113
  - Biotech sales forecasts, 2006-12 - page 113
  - Biotech peer set sales forecast, 2006-12 - page 115
  - Biotech sales compound annual growth rates, 2006-12 - page 116
  - Biotech change in annual sales, 2006-12 - page 118
- Biotech therapy area analysis - page 120
  - Biotech by therapy area sales, 2006 - page 120
  - Biotech by therapy area sales, 2012 - page 121
- Biotech molecule type analysis - page 122
  - Biotech by molecule type focus, 2006 - page 122
  - Biotech by molecule type focus, 2012 - page 124
- Biotech launches and expiries analysis - page 125
  - Biotech change in annual sales from launches and expiries, 2006-12 - page 125
  - Biotech sales growth rates from launches and expiries, 2006-12 - page 127
CHAPTER 5 JAPAN PHARMA - page 131
- Key findings - page 131
- Japan Pharma introduction - page 133
  - Japan Pharma members - page 133
  - Japan Pharma overview - page 134
- Japan Pharma sales outlook - page 136
  - Japan Pharma sales forecasts, 2006-12 - page 136
  - Japan Pharma peer set sales forecast, 2006-12 - page 138
  - Japan Pharma sales compound annual growth rates, 2006-12 - page 139
  - Japan Pharma change in annual sales, 2006-12 - page 140
- Japan Pharma therapy area analysis - page 142
  - Japan Pharma by therapy area sales, 2006 - page 142
  - Japan Pharma by therapy area sales, 2012 - page 143
- Japan Pharma molecule type analysis - page 144
  - Japan Pharma by molecule type focus, 2006 - page 144
  - Japan Pharma by molecule type focus, 2012 - page 145
- Japan Pharma launches and expiries analysis - page 146
  - Japan Pharma change in annual sales from launches and expiries, 2006-12 - page 146
  - Japan Pharma sales growth rates from launches and expiries, 2006-12 - page 148
CHAPTER 6 APPENDIX - page 151
- References - page 151
- Exchange rates - page 151

List of Tables
Table 1: PharmaVitae Company Universe by Peer Set - page 7
Table 2: Therapy area abbreviations (used throughout report) - page 8
Table 3: Summary of analysis - page 9
Table 4: PharmaVitae universe sales forecast by company ($m), 2006-12 - page 24
Table 5: PharmaVitae Universe sales forecast by therapy area ($m), 2006-12 - page 32
Table 6: PharmaVitae Universe sales forecast by molecule type ($m), 2006-12 - page 40
Table 7: Big Pharma members - page 63
Table 8: Big Pharma sales forecasts ($m), 2006-12 - page 65
Table 9: Big Pharma change in annual sales from launches and expiries ($m), 2006-12 - page 80
Table 10: Big Pharma sales growth rates from launches and expiries (%), 2006-12 - page 82
Table 11: Mid Pharma members - page 88
Table 12: Mid Pharma sales forecasts ($m), 2006-12 - page 91
Table 13: Mid Pharma change in annual sales from launches and expiries ($m), 2006-12 - page 102
Table 14: Mid Pharma sales growth rates from launches and expiries (%), 2006-12 - page 104
Table 15: Biotech members - page 110
Table 16: Biotech sales forecasts ($m), 2006-12 - page 113
Table 17: Biotech change in annual sales from launches and expiries ($m), 2006-12 - page 125
Table 18: Biotech sales growth rates from launches and expiries (%), 2006-12 - page 127
Table 19: Japan Pharma members - page 133
Table 20: Japan Pharma sales forecasts ($m), 2006-12 - page 136
Table 21: Japan Pharma change in annual sales from launches and expiries ($m), 2006-12 - page 146
Table 22: Japan Pharma sales growth rates from launches and expiries (%), 2006-12 - page 148
Table 23: Exchange rates, 2007 - page 151

List of Figures
Figure 1: PharmaVitae Universe overview - page 11
Figure 2: Big Pharma overview - page 13
Figure 3: Mid Pharma overview - page 15
Figure 4: Biotech overview - page 17
Figure 5: Japan Pharma overview - page 19
Figure 6: PharmaVitae Universe by Peer Set sales ($m), 2006-12 - page 21
Figure 7: Peer Set sales compound annual growth rates (%), 2006-12 - page 23
Figure 8: Company 2006 sales ($m) x 2006-12 CAGR (%) matrix - page 26
Figure 9: Peer Sets occupy discrete regions of the 2006 sales ($m) x 2006-12 CAGR (%) matrix - page 28
Figure 10: Scale limit of the 2006 sales ($m) x 2006-12 CAGR (%) matrix - page 30
Figure 11: PharmaVitae Universe sales forecast by therapy area ($m), 2006-12 - page 33
Figure 12: Therapy area compound annual growth rates (%), 2006-12 - page 34
Figure 13: Peer Set therapy area focus (%), 2006 - page 36
Figure 14: Company compound annual growth rates, 2006-12, predicted on basis of therapy area focus - page 38
Figure 15: PharmaVitae Universe sales forecast by molecule type ($m), 2006-12 - page 41
Figure 16: Molecule type compound annual growth rates (%), 2006-12 - page 42
Figure 17: Peer Set molecule type focus (%), 2006 - page 43
Figure 18: Company compound annual growth rates, 2006-12, predicted on the basis of molecule type - page 45
Figure 19: Small molecule focus (%), 2006 x Change in sales of expiry portfolio (%), 2006-12 - page 47
Figure 20: GlaxoSmithKline\'s launch portfolio, sales ($m), 2006-12 - page 50
Figure 21: GlaxoSmithKline\'s expiry portfolio, sales ($m), 2006-12 - page 51
Figure 22: GlaxoSmithKline\'s core portfolio, sales ($m), 2006-12 - page 52
Figure 23: GlaxoSmithKline launch/core/expiry analysis, change in annual sales ($m), 2006-12 - page 53
Figure 24: Company growth rates from launches and expiries, 2006-12 - page 55
Figure 25: Big Pharma overview - page 64
Figure 26: Big Pharma sales forecasts ($m), 2006-12 - page 67
Figure 27: Big Pharma peer set sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 - page 69
Figure 28: Big Pharma sales compound annual growth rates (%), 2006-12 - page 70
Figure 29: Big Pharma change in annual sales ($m), 2006-12 - page 71
Figure 30: Big Pharma by therapy area sales ($m), 2006 - page 73
Figure 31: Big Pharma by therapy area sales ($m), 2012 - page 75
Figure 32: Big Pharma by molecule type focus (%), 2006 - page 77
Figure 33: Big Pharma by molecule type focus (%), 2012 - page 79
Figure 34: Big Pharma sales growth rates from launches and expiries (%), 2006-12 - page 84
Figure 35: Mid Pharma overview - page 89
Figure 36: Mid Pharma sales forecasts ($m), 2006-12 - page 92
Figure 37: Mid Pharma peer set sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 - page 93
Figure 38: Mid Pharma sales compound annual growth rates (%), 2006-12 - page 94
Figure 39: Mid Pharma change in annual sales ($m), 2006-12 - page 95
Figure 40: Mid Pharma by therapy area sales ($m), 2006 - page 97
Figure 41: Mid Pharma by therapy area sales ($m), 2012 - page 99
Figure 42: Mid Pharma by molecule type focus (%), 2006 - page 100
Figure 43: Mid Pharma by molecule type focus (%), 2012 - page 101
Figure 44: Mid Pharma sales growth rates from launches and expiries (%), 2006-12 - page 106
Figure 45: Biotech overview - page 111
Figure 46: Biotech sales forecasts ($m), 2006-12 - page 114
Figure 47: Biotech peer set sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 - page 115
Figure 48: Biotech sales compound annual growth rates (%), 2006-12 - page 116
Figure 49: Biotech change in annual sales ($m), 2006-12 - page 118
Figure 50: Biotech by therapy area sales ($m), 2006 - page 120
Figure 51: Biotech by therapy area sales ($m), 2012 - page 121
Figure 52: Biotech by molecule type focus (%), 2006 - page 122
Figure 53: Biotech by molecule type focus (%), 2012 - page 124
Figure 54: Biotech sales growth rates from launches and expiries (%), 2006-12 - page 129
Figure 55: Japan Pharma overview - page 134
Figure 56: Japan Pharma sales forecasts ($m), 2006-12 - page 137
Figure 57: Japan Pharma peer set sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 - page 138
Figure 58: Japan Pharma sales compound annual growth rates (%), 2006-12 - page 139
Figure 59: Japan Pharma change in annual sales ($m), 2006-12 - page 140
Figure 60: Japan Pharma by therapy area sales ($m), 2006 - page 142
Figure 61: Japan Pharma by therapy area sales ($m), 2012 - page 143
Figure 62: Japan Pharma by molecule type focus (%), 2006 - page 144
Figure 63: Japan Pharma by molecule type focus (%), 2012 - page 145
Figure 64: Japan Pharma sales growth rates from launches and expiries (%), 2006-12 - page 149

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The Pharmaceutical Company Outlook to 2012: Strategic Analysis of Sales Outlook for Big Pharma

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